Turkey’s economy: Saved by the well

29 Gennaio 2015
Paese:  Turchia Fonte: 

IT IS a measure of how weak Turkey’s opposition parties are that they see an economic crisis as their sole hope of ejecting the conservative Justice and Development (AK) Party government. In the summer of 2013 their dreams seemed within reach: America’s Federal Reserve signalled it would soon start tightening monetary policy. In the ensuing “taper tantrum”, investors pulled money out of emerging markets in the expectation of higher interest rates in America. Turkey is highly dependent on foreign capital (the current-account deficit hit 7.9% of GDP in 2013); disaster seemed imminent.The sharp rise in interest rates needed to keep the lira from plunging naturally took a toll on the economy. The wilting currency, meanwhile, contributed to rising inflation. A further blow came with the upsurge in violence in neighbouring Iraq and Syria. Turkish exports to Iraq, its second-largest market after Germany, tumbled by 40%. And Turkey’s fraught peace talks with its own Kurds nearly collapsed threatening, in turn, a resumption of a 30-year rebel insurgency. The economic stability that has been the hallmark of the past 12 years of AK party rule seemed at…

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