Hung parliament, the destiny of UK general election

Hung parliament, the destiny of UK general election
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09 Giugno 2017
Categoria: Marketing Internazionale
Paese:  Regno Unito

The Brexit referendum took place in June 2016 and Britain officially will have to leave the European Union on Friday 29 March 2019.

Theresa May has called a general election on 8 of June to strengthen her hand and to guarantee political stability in Brexit negotiations with the EU but her gamble on a snap election has failed spectacularly costing her the control of the Commons.

The Conservatives were left humiliated after Labour gained dozens of seats and stopped the Tories from securing an overall majority in the House of Commons and the 2017 general election has resulted in a hung parliament.

A shock exit poll borne out by results over the night - predicted the Conservatives would win 317 seats and the Labour Party 261, meaning no clear winner.

Today Jeremy Corbyn leader of the Labour called for Theresa May to “go, and make way for a government that will be truly representative of all the people of this country” but there are reports she has “no intention” of resigning.

It’s all about Brexit

A recent poll showed that 63% of British people believe that Brexit is one of the three most important issues the UK faces in the coming months.

The Conservatives were looking for a big majority in parliament for the Brexit negotiations and for keeping things strong and stable.

Labour said that if they would have win, they will “build a close new relationship with the EU”, prioritizing jobs and workers’ rights and guarantee European Union nationals to stay in Britain.

Effects of terrorism on General Election

Researchers suggested that the impact of terrorism on electoral outcomes wasn’t straightforward. Political scientists have found that, in general, terrorism can increase support for conservative candidates, like May, more than it does liberal ones, like Corbyn, but how we saw in the election of France and Spain that the far-right candidate loosed their votes.

The atrocity in Manchester and London Bridge could present the Conservatives with several advantages. For Theresa May the advantages were double. Security is one of her stronger suits and we don’t have to forget that she was Home Secretary and knows the security portfolio inside out.

Another advantage for the Conservatives is that they are considered having a stronger strategy on national security than Labour, under the leadership of Jeremy Corbyn.

Immigration and UK

The current Conservative government wants to reduce net migration - the difference between people entering the UK and people leaving - to tens of thousands a year.

They have promised to increase the minimum income someone has to earn to come on a family visa and toughen visa requirements for students. This party says it will triple the Immigration Health Surcharge from £200 to £600.

Labour acknowledges that Brexit means that the free movement of people from Europe will end - but promises it won’t “scapegoat migrants”.

Effect of economy

The Brexit vote of last year, Theresa May’s conference speech in October and the announcement of the snap general election have all had serious effects.

One is that markets may expect the UK economy to grow more slowly after Brexit, and so make the UK a less attractive place to keep money - though growth, since the referendum, has been far more robust than anticipated money.

Another effect is that markets think Brexit will make exporting from the UK more expensive and difficult, and so the pound will fell to compensate this gap.

A third possible factor is that uncertainty means investors simply do not know whether the UK will be a good choice or not and so need to be enticed to hold sterling assets - and the pound has fallen to reflect that, cutting the price of UK investments for international buyers.

Business after Brexit

Businesses that import components and raw materials are suffering from higher costs as they pay extra to buy the goods from abroad. Retailers feel the pinch, particularly when importing perishable goods such as foodstuffs from abroad.

Inflation has picked up since the pound fell, with prices up 2.3pc on the year - matching wages and so threatening to end a period of growth in living standards, and to slow the economy overall.

It also makes the UK a less attractive place for foreign workers as their wages in sterling now translate to rather less in their home currencies.

Relation of UK and USA

If May returns to power, Trump stands to gain from their relationship. Although she has largely held her tongue as Trump has done things his way, whether that’s pulling out of the Paris climate accord, condemning NATO or attempting to impose a travel ban on six majority-Muslim countries.

If Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn wins, prepare for a series of clashes over just about everything.

Fonte: a cura di Exportiamo, di Morvarid Mahmoodabadi,


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